How fast could the battery storage market grow?

Summary: Global energy storage is projected to reach a cumulative 411 gigawatts (or 1,194 gigawatt-hours) by the end of 2030, according to the latest forecast from BNEF. The US and China are set to remain the two largest markets, representing over half of global storage installations by the end of the decade.

Why is this important: One of the biggest barriers to the widespread adoption of low carbon electricity generation remains the requirement for economic forms of electricity/energy storage. Li Ion batteries look to be the preferred short and medium storage period technology of choice but coping with infrequent low wind/low solar days will need alternative duration solutions.

The big theme: 100% (or close to) renewable/low carbon electricity generation systems are looking more viable with each passing year. But for this to happen we need a different electricity grid, one with battery storage, for periods of lower renewable production; more interconnectors, bringing electricity from different geographies, better demand management, and a massive investment in making our electricity grids more resilient and flexible.

Summary of a story from BNEF:

Global energy storage is projected to reach a cumulative 411 gigawatts (or 1,194 gigawatt-hours) by the end of 2030, according to the latest forecast from BNEF. That is 15 times the storage that was online at the end of 2021. The most notable new policies that have driven this higher forecast are the US Inflation Reduction Act, providing more than $369 billion in funding for clean technologies, and the European Union’s REPowerEU plan, which sets ambitious targets to reduce reliance on gas from Russia.

The US and China are set to remain the two largest markets, representing over half of global storage installations by the end of the decade. Europe, however, is catching up with a significant ramp-up in capacity fueled by the current energy crisis. Although the scale-up of global energy storage capacity is imminent, supply chain constraints could slow additions. On top of pandemic-related supply chain issues, inflation, high transport costs and raw material prices have made battery cells more expensive over the last year.

Why this is important

From an investing perspective energy storage was for many years the junior investment theme to renewable generation. That is changing and changing fast. As we highlighted in issue 44, battery storage is going to be an essential element of most countries plans to hit high levels of renewable electricity generation. Batteries, together with interconnectors and demand management, will help the grid bridge periods when we have no sunshine or wind.

It is expected that most battery storage projects globally will focus on time shifting, although grid balancing activities can also provide additional revenues. Co-located projects (ie solar or wind plus storage) are rapidly becoming the norm, at least in the US. The technology of choice for shorter durations is Li Ion, which already dominates the storage market out to six or even eight hours. While other technologies are being explored, our view is that they are unlikely to take material market share until the late 2020’s or even the early 2030’s.

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