Sustainable Investing is changing. Thoughts on the changes we have seen in 2024 and hopes for 2025.
Yes, investing is about the future. Future profits and future cashflows. But the value of a company is also impacted by historic innovation shortfalls. Nespresso shows it can work - will Nestle work out how to repeat the wins this brings?
Yes, demand for some 'dirty' products might collapse in the future. But, to make a compelling case to investors, we also need to understand if this negative outcome is already reflected in the current share price.
Diversity matters, but not the diversity you might think. It has become an accepted fact that there is a strong link between demographic diversity and financial returns. But it's not actually supported by rigorous analysis.
Audits matter. Much of the time investors don't get the data that underpins a company strategy. It's confidential. And so we rely on the auditor to check it. And this should include sustainability strategy. But, often it doesn't. That needs to change.
A clean, low carbon electricity grid is possible. And while the task of adding all of the renewables, batteries etc is challenging, the big barrier is political will and regulatory frameworks. Lets not pretend the route will be easy.
If we want companies to become more sustainable, we need to focus on the financial impacts of the transition. And we need to make the imperative for change clear - not just from society, but from governments and regulators.
Would taking a mining company private help with sustainability? Or could we achieve the same outcome with a material minority holding?
Accounting is the language of business - most investors would be lost without accounting numbers. And generally we need better sustainability related disclosures - a mining case study.
Assuming business as usual is often the easy option. But often change happens faster than we expect. And this can expose the company to material risks.
Companies make strategies, investors just critique them. And to do this well, we need companies to have a clearly set out vision for how their industry will look in the future, and how they will fit in it.
Business 101 - first understand how the people you want to influence actually think. This also applies to those who want to influence companies and asset managers. Start with how they think and tailor your message to focus on what they see as important.